Photovoltaic new technology TOPCon analysis, an article to understand TOPCon battery
Release time:
2023-08-15
The best technical route of TOPCon has not yet been finalized. PECVD and LPCVD go hand in hand. The core difference of the technical route of TOPCon battery lies in the preparation of tunneling oxide layer and doped polysilicon.
TOPCon has many obvious advantages and will become the mainstream route in the next two years. At present, the average efficiency of P-type PERC battery is about 23.5, which is close to the efficiency limit of 24.5. The industry urgently needs to develop the next generation technology. Since 2022, the N-type technology accelerated iteration, TOPCon technology with its high conversion efficiency, relatively mature equipment and technology, high mass production cost-effective, in the N-type route to the fore, the industrialization process continues to accelerate. 2023 is the first year of large-scale release of TOPCon technology, the industry has entered the stage of large-scale mass production, we expect 23 years TOPCon shipping market share is expected to reach 20%-30%, and in 24 years to reach more than 50%, will become the next two years the mainstream battery technology route.
The best technical route of TOPCon has not yet been finalized. PECVD and LPCVD go hand in hand. The core difference of the technical route of TOPCon battery lies in the preparation of tunneling oxide layer and doped polysilicon. At present, the mainstream preparation methods are LPCVD and PECVD. The LPCVD route has relatively high maturity and good film forming effect, but it has the disadvantages of winding plating, difficult in-situ doping, and consuming quartz tube, however, there are problems such as poor film quality and low production yield. At present, the industry to achieve large-scale shipments of TOPCon's mainstream technology path is LPCVD, on behalf of the enterprise for Jingke Energy and Junda shares. The new expansion of production is mainly PECVD-based, the main manufacturers include Tongwei shares, Jingao Technology, Tianhe Solar Energy and so on. At the current point in time, there is no significant difference in cost and efficiency between the two technical routes, and the two paths may be parallel in the future.
TOPCon has obvious sales premium compared with PERC, and the cost difference is not big. In terms of better economic selling price, TOPCon currently has a premium of more than 0.1 yuan m compared with PERC. The main reasons are: 1) TOPCon has high efficiency compared with PERC battery, thus diluting BOS cost related to area; 2)TOPCon has excellent characteristics such as high double-sided rate, low temperature coefficient and low attenuation, which can improve power generation capacity of power generation and reduce LCOE of downstream, thus bringing a premium on the sales side, we estimate that the theoretical premium for TOPCon can reach 0.15-0.2 yuan/W. In terms of cost, the current leading TOPCon battery plant can control the cost difference and PERC within 0.03 yuan N. Taking into account the two dimensions of revenue and cost, the current TOPCon is more than 0.07 yuan N higher than PERC single-watt profit, with better economy.
The industrialization trend is clear, and the technological bonus of leading players is gradually realized. The industrialization trend of TOPCon is clear. A large number of players have laid out TOPCon production lines one after another. According to our incomplete statistics, the new TOPCon production capacity will exceed 400GW in 2023. It is estimated that TOPCon will surpass PERC and become the new main line of photovoltaic cell technology by 2024. In terms of production caliber, we expect TOPCon to produce about 100GW this year, accounting for 20%-30% of total battery output. As the most cost-effective N-type battery route, TOPCon batteries are high-quality and scarce capacity, will remain in short supply throughout the year, and the profit premium is expected to be maintained. In the industrial technology iteration cycle, the leading battery component manufacturers that are the first to achieve technology research and development and mass production are expected to fully enjoy the excess benefits of the new technology.
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