Recently, with the disclosure of the annual report performance forecast of major listed companies, the photovoltaic industry has once again become the focus of public attention. The continuous increase in the price of silicon materials for more than a year has made the performance of listed companies in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain generally exceed expectations, especially the upstream silicon materials companies have made a lot of money ".

As of February 6, Tongwei shares ranked 8th and Daquan Energy ranked 12th in the 2022 A- share annual report earnings forecast. Only Tongwei shares and Daquan energy two photovoltaic enterprises, the total net profit increase has exceeded 46 billion, more than 70 photovoltaic-based listed companies in 77% of the company forecast performance growth. In the context of global carbon neutrality, the situation of photovoltaic industry is very good. Photovoltaic industry chain companies have announced production expansion plans. At the same time, more than 75 companies in various industries such as real estate, clothing, garden construction, animal husbandry, toys, games, and automobile manufacturing have piled up cross-border photovoltaics, setting off a wave of "chasing light. According to the statistics of the international energy network/photovoltaic headlines, the polysilicon project planned or under construction in 2022 will reach 5.5245 million tons and the silicon wafer project will reach 543GW ...... While the photovoltaic industry is booming, a series of problems such as capacity expansion, cross-border enterprises, technology choices, industrial integration, power grid security ...... have become the biggest challenges facing the photovoltaic industry at present!

In this context, how can photovoltaic enterprises take up the important task of building a new power system with new energy as the main body? In the case of increasing market risks and intensified competition, how can photovoltaic enterprises carry out technological innovation and obtain steady and rapid development?

1 Behind performance growth-capacity expansion, cross-border competition

In 2022, China's new PV installed capacity was 87.41GW, up 60.3 percent year-on-year, another record high. In such a situation, "performance pre-increase" has become the mainstream of listed companies.

Photovoltaic head enterprises have obtained almost full marks. Among them, silicon enterprises are undoubtedly the biggest winners, Tongwei shares, Daquan Energy two leading silicon enterprises combined net profit increased by 46.4 billion yuan. Silicon chip link, Longji green energy, TCL Central and other leading performance is quite bright. Battery chip link, Aixu shares performance is expected to hit a new high since the listing.

Component links, Tianhe Solar Energy, Jingao Technology, Jingke Energy and other companies are expected to grow more than 100 percent year-on-year. In addition, the inverter, film and other auxiliary materials enterprises have also achieved substantial performance growth. Sungrow Power's expected net profit is 3.2 billion yuan to 3.8 billion yuan. Deye shares and Jinlang Technology both expect net profit to exceed 1 billion yuan.

But the "earnings" of these listed companies in each quarter of 2022 will find that under the huge profits, the actual upstream silicon price correction. This is reflected in the fourth quarter performance growth of related enterprises.

Photovoltaic upstream silicon price correction, the important reason is classified as the release of production capacity, in fact, from the beginning of March last year, the domestic silicon link has added a number of tens of billions of investment plans, in the middle of, TEPCO and other companies have joined the investment expansion of the industry.

According to incomplete statistics, there are as many as 41 polysilicon projects planned or under construction in 2022, with a total scale of 5.5245 million tons. There are as many as 32 silicon wafer projects planned or under construction in 2022, with a total scale of 543GW, involving an investment of 419.786 billion billion yuan. Among them are many listed companies, such as glass fiber giant China Jushi, Internet company Sanwu Internet, real estate company Warner Group, construction company Hongrun Construction, automobile company BYD, clothing company Bangjie Co., Ltd., catering company Zhongke Yunwang, breeding company Huangshi Group, textile industry Jiangsu Sunshine and other listed companies, which are investing intensively in the photovoltaic industry across borders, enter the investment in photovoltaic power plants, silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery chips, components, system integration, photovoltaic manufacturing equipment and other industrial chain fields. For such cross-border enterprises, if there is no integrated photovoltaic industry chain layout to achieve self-internal circulation, rashly engaged in silicon material, silicon wafer processing will face great risks. Once there is a problem of overcapacity in the photovoltaic market, in order to consume the expected production capacity, it will inevitably bring low-price competition, which will cause further reshuffle of the industrial chain, and many companies will fall. As far as the capacity expansion of domestic silicon factories and silicon wafer factories is concerned, overcapacity is a matter of time. The International Energy Network predicts that the prices of silicon and silicon wafers will return to normal space this year. Next year, the competition in the silicon and silicon wafer industries will become more intense. The price game in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will also become more intense. Overcapacity will lead to price wars. Silicon materials may return to the "low profit era".

2TOPCon, HJT, HPBC, perovskite how to choose?

Compared with the production capacity competition, the technical route selection and reserve of photovoltaic industry are the core competitiveness of enterprises. Under the guidance of policies and the continuous efforts of many photovoltaic enterprises such as Longji and Tianhe, the photoelectric conversion efficiency has achieved a breakthrough of 26.81.

At present, the main technical route of photovoltaic is PERC, and TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), MWT and HPBC have also become the exploration directions of various enterprises. Different thickness of the battery chip, different technology of silver paste dosage, contact mode, etc. are different, for the battery chip comprehensive power generation efficiency and product yield will have an impact, whether it can achieve mass production, and then achieve low cost is the key.

At present, many photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises such as Tongwei, Longji, Tianhe, Jingke and Jingao mainly focus on PERC mass production. Tianhe set a world record of 24.5 percent for PERC conversion efficiency in July 2022, which has almost become the limit of PERC battery technology. However, the next generation of heterojunction technology has been taken a fancy to by many photovoltaic enterprises. From Jinneng to Longji and Dongfang Risheng, there are also many photovoltaic leaders aiming at heterojunction technology, especially Longji, set a heterojunction technology photoelectric conversion efficiency of 25.26 of the world record. Not only that, Longji's N-type TOPCON and P-type TOPCON technical routes have also made choices, setting world records of 25.02% for P-type TOPCON and 25.21% for N-type TOPCON. In addition, Longji also announced that the production efficiency of the standard version of HPBC battery exceeded 25%, and the PRO version with hydrogen passivation technology was superimposed, and the efficiency could exceed 25.3.

TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), HPBC, perovskite as the representative of the battery technology has received more and more attention, who is the future mainstream technology?

3 Competition is about to heat up, photovoltaic industry integration to open a new bureau

Photovoltaic power generation is known as a way of clean energy utilization, but the development of photovoltaic industry so far, it is no longer a single energy so simple. Since the country proposed to build a new power system with new energy as the main body, photovoltaic is shouldering the important task of realizing energy transformation. The integrated development of wind and hydrogen storage has been mentioned more and more. The photovoltaic industry is no longer the "lone brave" to achieve my country's "double carbon" goal. It has become a part of comprehensive energy.

In addition to photovoltaic energy storage, water scenery, scenery fire storage, regional coupling heating and other varieties of collaborative development will also show the trend of prairie fire. Not only that, new energy sources such as photovoltaic power generation will continue to penetrate into agriculture, forestry, ecological environment, and rural revitalization. Photovoltaic how to open the pattern, the integration of other energy categories and even with other industries are placed in front of the test. Because the photovoltaic industry at this time is not a closed "circle", it needs to be integrated with different application scenarios, different energy types and different market spaces.

Under such an opportunity, how to obtain new gold mining opportunities has become a problem faced by every photovoltaic enterprise and even every energy enterprise. Where should the future of the photovoltaic industry go? What should lead the innovation of photovoltaic technology? What should the performance of photovoltaic enterprises rely on? Do you need a "reference answer"?

At this moment, the "Seventh China Photovoltaic Industry Forum" with the theme of "New Energy, New System and New Ecology", sponsored by the International Energy Network, Photovoltaic Headlines and Energy Storage Headlines, will be held in Beijing from February 21 to 22.

The forum aims to build a value-based exchange platform for the photovoltaic industry. The forum invites leaders, experts and scholars from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau, industry authoritative experts, industry associations, scientific research institutions, design institutes and other institutions, as well as Huaneng, National Energy Group, State Power Investment, China Energy Conservation, Datang, Three Gorges, China Nuclear Power, China General Nuclear Power and other power investment companies, State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, and photovoltaic industry chain manufacturing companies, professionals such as system integration enterprises and EPC enterprises fully demonstrate how to perfectly integrate with energy storage, hydrogen energy and traditional energy under the background of new power system, discuss hot topics such as photovoltaic industry policy, technology, industrial development and trend, help the industrial end to realize integrated development, and strive to smoothly transmit the value of green energy to end users.

At the same time of the forum, the "Symposium on Energy Storage and New Energy Systems" held on February 21 will discuss and exchange hot issues such as energy storage industry policy, technology and integration of optical storage. Enterprises such as National Energy Group, Tris Energy Storage, Ease Group, Chint New Energy, Kehua Digital Energy, Baoguang Zhizhong, Aishiwei Storage and Shouhang New Energy will address the difficulties to be overcome in the construction of new ecology under the background of large-scale energy storage energy storage, to achieve win-win and new ecological steady development, to provide new ideas and insights.

The International Energy Network, Photovoltaic Headlines and Energy Storage Headlines will discuss and exchange "China's Plan for Photovoltaic Applications in the New Ecology" with all the industry's big names and heavyweight guests ".