Three years ago, many people would give a negative answer, because the leading enterprises are too strong, the market pattern has been solidified. Now, this answer has to be changed.

In a highly mature industry, hidden changes often come from the periphery or edges of the market. Just as smartphones subvert the era of Nokia's dominance, the wave of electric vehicles subvert fuel vehicles. With the iteration of new technologies and the entry of new capital, "rookies" have ample opportunity to overtake in corners.

This is the case in the field of photovoltaic modules. Since the first half of last year, the ranking of the top ten components has undergone subtle changes. A "new force" of components such as Xinneng and Huansheng photovoltaic has rushed into the list, and the signs of rise have emerged. Today, with the continued strong demand for N-type battery market, "new forces" are stirring the market situation, injecting new vitality into the industry and bringing new possibilities.

You chase me, component rivers and lakes surging in the photovoltaic industry chain, the component link is the most competitive. It is this kind of inner volume that presses the cost of photovoltaic manufacturing to the limit and makes it possible to access the Internet at a low price. In the past ten years, the component Jianghu has "changed the king flag" several times ". Wuxi Suntech, Yingli Group, Trina Solar (SH:688599) and JinkoSolar (SH:688223) have successively topped the list of component shipments in the world. However, in the fierce market fluctuations, their positions have not been maintained for too long, and even some enterprises have fallen in the competition.

After several rounds of reshuffling, the pattern of the component industry has finally stabilized in the past two years-Longji Green Energy (SH:601012) ranked first in shipments for three consecutive years. Former overlords Trina Solar, Jingke Energy, and another established component company Jingao Technology (SZ:002459) followed closely to form the first echelon of the component industry.

In the first half of this year, the four major component giants are still firmly seated in Diaoyutai. Jinko Energy ranked first with more than 30GW, Trina Solar ranked second with shipments of 27-28GW, and Longji Green Energy and Jingao Technology ranked third and fourth, with shipments of more than 25GW and 24-25GW respectively.

The second tier of the component industry consists of Artes (SH:688472), Oriental Sunrise (SZ:300118) and Chint New Energy. Artes has been in the top five in component shipments for more than a decade in a row, and Oriental Sunrise has been in the top ten in component shipments since 2018. Back to the Zhengtai Group, Zhengtai Xinneng was established late, but the growth momentum is strong, after 2020 into the second echelon of component enterprises, shipments second only to Artes and Oriental Sunrise.

From the shipping data, the second echelon and the head of the enterprise gap is obvious, temporarily difficult to shake the status of the four component giants. From the fourth place onwards, shipments fell precipitously-the difference between the fourth place Jingao Technology and the fifth place Artes was more than 10GW, and Artes shipped only 14GW. Oriental Sunrise, which is tied for sixth place, and Chint's shipments in the first half of the year were both 11.5GW.

The biggest attraction comes from the new forces following the second echelon, including the rising stars of Tongwei (SH:600438), a new energy and Huansheng photovoltaic. Although the shipment volume in the first half of the year did not exceed 10GW, the growth is rapid. The advantage of backwardness should not be underestimated. There are many variables hidden in the future of the industry.

Huaxia Energy Network (Public No. hxny3060) combed the planned production capacity of various enterprises and found that by the end of 2023, Longji Green Energy's component production capacity was 130GW, Trina Solar Energy was 95GW, Jingke Energy was 90GW, and Jingao Technology was 80GW. If the plan can be successfully landed, the top four positions of the four component companies will remain solid.

The biggest variable comes from Tongwei. According to Tongwei's disclosure, its component production capacity is "expected to reach 80GW by the end of 2023". In this way, Tongwei's component planning capacity will exceed Artes's 50GW, Chint's 55GW and Dongfang Sunrise's 45GW, jumping to the fourth place with Jingao Technology.

Tongwei was originally a leader in the field of silicon materials. It only entered the field of components last year, but it was among the top 10 in the list of component shipments in the first year. The strong momentum of Tongwei shares, will become the "big catfish" that stirs the components of the river ".

The second major variable comes from the rapid rise of component "new forces. A new energy, huansheng photovoltaic and xiexin integration (SZ:002506) and other enterprises, the planned module production capacity will reach 30GW by the end of this year, bite the second echelon, making the second echelon's market position facing challenges. In the longer term, these new forces have shown strong growth and are more likely to become reshufflers in the future.

The growth of the "new leader" and the pattern will be reshaped. The opportunity to overtake in each round of corners lies in how the new players win the time cost by virtue of the "growth rate. In the race of new components, a new energy cannot be underestimated.

A new energy, which was only established in 2018, is the youngest enterprise in the component shipment list in the first half of this year. In 2019, the revenue of a new energy was only 0.135 billion yuan, but by 2022, its revenue has exceeded 10 billion yuan, an increase of more than 73 times, and its explosive power is amazing. At present, the company is preparing to go public and has recently completed a Pre-IPO of financing, with a valuation of nearly 8 billion yuan after this round of financing.

Huaxia Energy Network (public number hxny3060) noted that since the establishment of a new energy, the cumulative has completed nine rounds of financing, investors in the Three Gorges Xintai, China Merchants Venture Capital, Financial Street Capital and other state-owned capital. The strong support of the strong state-owned assets is an important reason why the "new leader" can gallop the component market.

In addition, a new technology iteration is also worthy of attention. In 2019, it took the lead in building the first domestic high-efficiency TOPCon battery production line with an annual output of 1.2GW. In April this year, a new energy announced that using the independently developed TOPCon3.0 plus technology, the efficiency of the N-type TOPCon battery with M10 size (area 333.05cm ²) exceeded 26.24, and the open circuit voltage VOC reached 730mV. Relying on technical advantages, the shipment of a new N-type module has ranked third in the world.

A new energy said that after the completion of the Pre-IPO financing, it will further lay out the core battery technologies such as TOPCon 4.0, TBC, SCPC, TSiX and SFOS. SFOS battery technology is an ultra-efficient battery technology jointly developed by Xinneng and the Photovoltaic Research Center of the University of New South Wales. Its theoretical maximum efficiency can exceed 40%. The continuous improvement of technology will further support a new growth path in the future.

At present, the market share of a new energy is continuing to rise. In the first half of last year, a new energy advanced into the top 10 of the shipment list, and by the end of the year, 8.5GW ranked ninth. This year, a new energy in the first half of the module shipments of 7.5GW, close to last year's shipments. Although in the first half of the component shipment list, a new energy is still only ranked ninth, but its shipment growth rate is amazing, only in June a single month of shipments of 2GW.

On the other hand, a new energy is expected to its component capacity will reach 30GW by the end of this year. As a result, shipments of a new energy will increase more rapidly as component capacity climbs, and are expected to soon surpass some of the second tier companies.

If the scale of the winning bid, in fact, a new energy has entered the first echelon of component enterprises. According to statistics, in the first half of this year, a new energy won the bid for the centralized procurement project of 12 enterprises, including China Power Construction (SH:601669), Three Gorges Group, State Power Investment, Huaneng Group and China Nuclear Group, with a winning scale of more than 3.2GW, ranking among the top five winning enterprises in the first half of this year.

Since the beginning of this year, a new can open the international strategic layout, at the beginning of the year set up a German subsidiary, and recently set up an Australian subsidiary. Internationalization will open up new growth space.

Liu Yong, chairman and president of a new energy, told the media a few days ago that a new energy will substantially enter overseas markets this year. In addition to Germany and Australia, a new energy will also establish subsidiaries in Europe, South America, Japan and other places. "In about 3 to 5 years, (a new energy) overseas market accounted for more than the domestic market".

In addition, Liu Yong also said that after a new energy has established a marketing network overseas, it will also invest in the construction of production plants. A new energy is expected to accelerate the pace of expansion, open the gap with other "rookies", break through the existing pattern of the component industry.

In addition to a new energy, among the new components, many enterprises such as Huansheng Photovoltaic, Hengdian Dongzhi (SZ:002056) and Xiexin Integration are still in the race. Almost all of these new forces are actively laying out N-type technology. With the replacement of P-type technology by N-type technology, they will show their own style. In the end, whoever can demonstrate extraordinary production capacity and product strength in the high-efficiency component market will have the opportunity to become the one who changes the pattern.

Some observers have asserted that the theme of the photovoltaic industry in the next decade will revolve around the competition of component links. Photovoltaic industry to appear super giant, even a trillion market value of the giant, but also must rely on the component link to support.

With the further improvement of market concentration, the "hundred billion club" of the component market is still open to new forces. The healthy competition will give birth to new giants, and the future of the industry will be more colorful.